Sunday, January 23, 2011

Nifty for short term

Nifty:
Nifty was in consolidation mode last week.This being an expiry week,it should move on. Let us see the short term chart below.

The 2 best performing markets in Asia,China and India are in a clear downtrend.Nifty has been clearly down trending with corrections around 10-12 percent as of now.To what extent the correction can happen in Nifty?

The answer is:
Nifty as per the pattern above with 1:1 ratio the target would be somewhere between 5500-5550 and with 1:1.27 target would be 5400-5460.
Though the results are good,the sentiment is weak with worries related to scams,inflation and inability of government and RBI alone to control inflation.Any, one not so good news will pull the market to the above mentioned levels.
However,there is also a probability of Nifty touching 5950-6000.Now the question is which is first,going low or up?It all depends on other factors like FII`s,inflation for next 2 weeks,results and RBI policy on 25th.

The best bull case would be to consolidate above 200DMA and first to cross 5750 and then 5855-5875 convincingly,else bears will kill this market up to 5100 levels and further.
With positive results last week for Reliance and SBI,the 3 consecutive close of Nifty above 5755 would take Nifty to 6000 levels.


Best of your trading!!


Update on Reliance

Reliance Industries:
Reliance has been trading in the range between 900-1150 for the past 2 years,which has been the main laggard of Nifty. This time around with good Q3 results,will the stock move up?
Lets see what chart says for short term:


 A perfect hammer at the end of downtrend on Thursday last week with huge volumes indicate trend reversal.Is this the short term bottom?May be,i more leg down to 950 levels and then towards 1040.Oscillators are still in negative territory.
Bottom line,it is still in trading range.Buy at 950 levels and sell at 1120 levels.If we see clear breakout from this range,it would be 200 points from breakout either side.Better avoid this stock.